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Andreessen venture framing (outliers and omission)

April 4, 2026a16z, Tim Draper

a16z amplifies Marc Andreessen arguing venture’s biggest error is missing outliers and that opportunity cost dominates, while Tim Draper echoes that obvious Series A winners rarely become the biggest winners.

Marc Andreessen says the biggest mistake in venture isn’t losing money. It’s missing the outlier.
There are two categories of mistakes: there's the mistake of commission and the mistake of omission.
Series A “winners” rarely become the real big winners.
The real winners are quietly building.
a16z
Tim Draper
ventureoutliersstrategy

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