Goldman Sachs commentary is repeatedly cited to argue the Iran war’s oil spike can weaken growth and lift recession odds, while also changing how traders think about jobs and inflation sensitivity versus past decades.
Goldman Sachs sees a 30% U.S. recession risk, with slowing growth, rising inflation (2.5%), and higher unemployment (4.6%).
RECESSION RISKS RISE AS WAR HITS U.S. ECONOMY
Goldman Sachs: surging oil prices are causing demand destruction.
"First, we find that while higher oil prices still tend to reduce job growth and raise unemployment, the impact is roughly one-third as large as in 1975-1999, likely reflecting the lower oil intensity of US GDP and surge in domestic
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